In-Person
Where: The Petroleum Club of Shreveport, 15th floor
Cost: $25
If you’d like a seat, kindly use the form below to make your reservation by the preceding Friday.
We encourage members to invite guests, spouses, and friends to any of our meetings.
Virtual
Where: Zoom
(starting at 12:00PM)
Cost: $10
If you’d like to attend virtually, please pay with a credit card below and use the email address where you would like Zoom login details sent. Please make your reservation to attend virtually by noon the day before the meeting.
Biography
Donald P. Muth, Sr.
Donald P. Muth, Sr. is an active independent AAPG Certified petroleum geologist and consultant. He has over 40 years of diverse industry experience in petroleum exploration, development, exploitation, expert witness, reserve evaluation and other. Don is a 1979 geology graduate from Auburn University and 1989 MBA grad from University of New Orleans. East Texas natural gas is his current interest. He enjoys learning and writing.
Abstract
Henry Hub Natural gas prices bottomed several times below $2.00 per million Btu on a daily basis in 2023 including a close of $ 1.87 on April 14, far below a value to promote development. U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes along with U.S. banking balance sheet weakness and stringent lending are placing downward price pressure on all economic activities. The +60% natural gas price drop since late December 2022 is reflected in the Baker Hughes rig count as gas producers pull back drilling programs. Excess short term U.S. natural gas supply still remains.
However, there are upward market price drivers buoying natural gas prices. A natural gas price break-out may be expected in mid-2023 and is entirely dependent upon European LNG imports remaining strong. Asia’s LNG imports are volatile depending upon China’s demand.
The Freeport LNG terminal is regaining near capacity export operations as of mid-April 2023. Domestic gas storage refill has begun. Natural gas consumption for electricity power generation along with pipeline exports to Mexico will increase in 2023. A shortage of potash and potassium fertilizer will make nitrogen fertilizer the product of choice with natural gas as its feedstock.
Western EU countries and the U.S. administration have enacted 2,500 economic restrictions, sanctions and other on Russia. Globalization is all but over. Western Europe has opted for U.S. LNG and other stable sources for natural gas. A vast LNG infrastructure is under construction in Europe indicating a commitment to LNG and natural gas.
The social/ideolog war against fossil fuels, taming inflation with a stronger dollar, providing military and monetary assistance to Europe, enforcing restrictions against a world supplier and decoupling globalization cannot simultaneously be performed without drastic economic/social consequences. Natural gas is the low carbon energy fuel. Economic necessity will push natural gas prices toward $4.00 in the U.S. by the third quarter of 2023.
